Is the invasion of Ukraine worth it for Putin and his oligarchs?
For most observers of the invasion of Ukraine by its Russian neighbour, the question is, what the Russian president is trying to achieve. –
His reasons, pretexts of a threatening NATO expansion to the East, show, how caught up he is in the perspective of the Soviet Union’s disregard for state sovereignty vis-à-vis the Baltic states, Ukraine and Georgia and his personal nostalgy of him as Zarewitch of an empire from the Danube river to the Pacific Ocean.
His reasons to “protect” russian speaking populations in Ukraine is also proven lies. He does not only not care about the population, he does not care about cities in these occupied parts of Ukraine, which he transforms to rubbles and moon landscapes.
He kills the inhabitants and citzens of Ukraine, he destroys hopitals, kindergartens, schools and universities, he destroys the electricity, the heating and water infrastructure making Ukraine inhabitable for Ukrainianians, as he did in Chechenia and in Syria that’s his plan phase 2.
Phase one of his plan was the occupation and enslavement of the population and expropriation of Ukraine of all natural resources in a week. After three years he didn’t succeed.
Given the fact that he is surrounded and supported by oligarchs with KGB training, can the impression that this is primarily an act of pure piracy really be dismissed?
The most dangerous thing one can make in history and geopolitics is to underestimate an adversary. Putin, there is no doubt, is an adversary of democratic societies, because naturally they are a big question mark for his own system. But he sees all the democracies as enemies, above all if these democratic societies have the means to block him and his oligarchs from securing his access to the prey of Ukrainian raw materials. –
Is it really audacious to think that Putin above all is after these raw materials, which are indispensable for the high-tech industry and for the European energy transition, in order to:
- support his own power apparatus by paying the Oligarches,
- give China the monopoly on rare earths so that he can obtain the extraction technology, which has been delivered bevor by western companies, and in return for energy raw materials for the energy thirthty chinese economy, do we all forget about the interference of China in Serbia about the lithium extraction? – Do we forget about the subversive activities of the Wagner group in the republic of Central Africa, in Burkina Faso, in Mali, in Niger, where they control now all the natural resources such as Uranium, Gold, Diamonds etc. ?
- all the cheap electrical appliances from China with which he can keep his own population quiet? (we remember the raids by Russian occupying soldiers in the Ukraine, who took all the washing machines and other electrical appliances they could get hold of on their forced retreat home)
What other reasons could Putin have to sacrifice several hundred thousands Russian soldiers? He does not care about the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 (https://treaties.un.org/…/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf ), which guarantees Ukraine’s renunciation of nuclear weapons and Russia’s recognition of Ukraine’s borders. (see also the post “Paper is alive”.
The Russian President and KGB operative and his oligarch gang must have goals, for which the population of the to be conquered country is cynically not necessary, in the contrary.
The transformation of prosperous industrial cities to rubbles and moon landscapes, the destruction of power stations, schools, universities and hospitals trickers a fleeing population which can in KGB/FSB terms be “useful” to create a refugee crises and social tensions in the European Union. For the following we should keep this in mind.
So, if not the above mentionned reasons, what is the goal of this former senior KGB officer whose biggest “mistake” was that his interlocutors underestimated him? Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy, describe very well what made him, what he has become and what drives him (“Mr. Putin: operating in the Kremlin” / Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy. Brookings 2013; 2-2015.)
When a man calculating to the smallest detail starts a war against a neighbouring country in 2014, first in Crimea, then in the Donbas and finally against the entire rest of Ukraine, when he accepts very expensive sanctions against his country as well as the death of several hundred thousand of his soldiers, when he indiscriminately kills Russian-speaking Ukrainian citizens by air strikes on residential buildings, when he permanently destroys the electricity, heat and water supply of the civilian population (also and especially in the majority Russian-speaking Donbas) in the middle of winter, then there must be a reason that weighs heavier for him and his oligarchic advisors.
The historian may be forgiven for paying particular attention to the hypothesis of a connection between interests and temporal processes. This is true for the Nazi Conquests for monetary reserves of the occupied countries, or industrial facilities as in Czechoslovakia to boost the capabilities before 1940 and then in France, in Belgium to increase the weapons production capabilities – to conquer even more!
After Ukraine had decisively set out on the path to the European Union with the Euromaidan in 2013-2014, Russia occupied significant parts of Ukraine in the east of the country as well as the Crimean peninsula in 2014 after only a few months. The European Union, which is currently often forgotten due to the turmoil of war, concluded an Association Agreement with Ukraine in 2014 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/DE/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:22014A0529(01)&from=EN partnership to implement the EU’s Critical Commodities Action Plan of September 2020.
Experts have known for a long time that large quantities of coal, oil and natural gas are stored in the Russian-occupied territories.
As is well known, the European Union and Ukraine launched a strategic partnership on raw materials and batteries in mid-July 2021. This new partnership – in line with the objectives of the EU Action Plan on Critical Raw Materials – aims to help strengthen and secure both sides’ supplies of critical raw materials and batteries.
In September 2020, the EU published a Critical Raw Materials Action Plan to support Europe’s transition to a green and digital economy. The EU Action Plan builds on the first initiatives of the European Commission and the European Parliament (Bütighofer Report) in 2014, which took on particular importance following China’s reduction of rare earth exports.
Against this background, the strategic partnership with Ukraine signed in 2021 aims to develop three key areas of work: Aligning the legal framework for mining and applying the principles of sustainable mining; better integrating the value chains for critical raw materials and batteries; and developing joint venture projects and other business opportunities. In addition, the new partnership will promote closer cooperation on research and innovation along the raw materials and battery value chains through the Horizon Europe framework program.
The aim is to develop a strategy and roadmap for the decarbonisation of raw material extraction, production and processing in Ukraine and to strengthen the sustainable and responsible sourcing and processing of raw materials and batteries in Ukraine, to improve the management of data on Ukrainian mineral resources and reserves, to use earth observation and remote sensing programmes for resource exploration, and to identify and implement joint venture projects for industrial actors and investors from the EU and Ukraine.
Confronted to this backdrop, it is not surprising that Putin and his oligarchic partners sought to overthrow the Ukrainian government after the occupation of Crimea and the Donbas in 2014 and then in February 2022 in order to regain or secure their access to Ukraine’s natural resources.
Ukraine is currently one of the largest producers of the following minerals:
Metal minerals:
7th in the world for iron extraction: 39 million tonnes and 2.4% of world production (after Australia, China, Brazil, India, Russia and the RSA).
8th in the world for mining manganese: 651 thousand tonnes and 3.6% of world production (after Australia, China, Gabon, Brazil, Ghana and India).
6th in the world for the mining of titanium: 431 thousand tonnes and 6.3 % of world production (after China, RSA, Australia, Canada і Mozambique).
2nd place in the world for the extraction of gallium: 9 tonnes and 2.9 % of world production (after China).
5th place in the world in the extraction of germanium: 1 tonne and 1 % of world production (after China, Russia, the USA and Japan).
Non-metallic minerals
6th place worldwide in the extraction of kaolin: 2.4 million tonnes and 5.9% of world production (after China, the USA, Germany, India and the Czech Republic).
10th in the world for zirconium silicate: 26 000 tonnes and 1.9% of world production (after Australia, South Africa, China, Mozambique, Senegal, the USA, Kenya, India and Indonesia).
Ranked 8th in the world for graphite extraction: 13 000 tonnes and 1.3% of world production (after China, Brazil, North Korea, India, Russia, Canada and Madagascar).
Mineral fuels
Ranked 13th in the world for extraction of coal for power plants: 18.9 million tonnes and 0.4 % of world production (after China, India, USA, Indonesia, Australia, RSA, Russia, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Poland, Vietnam and Canada).
Ranked 12th in the world for coking coal mining: 5.2 million tonnes and 0.5 % of world production (after China, Australia, Russia, the USA, India, Canada, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Poland, Mozambique and Colombia).
Ranked 10th in the world in uranium mining: 1 tonne and 1.4 % of world production (after Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia, Namibia, Niger, Uzbekistan, Russia, China and the USA).
After President Selensky took office, the Ukrainian government significantly improved and liberalised the system for issuing permits for mineral extraction. In addition, the State Service for Geology and Mineral Resources of Ukraine has presented an investment atlas for mineral resource management, which includes over 140 fields for which electronic auctions are planned in the near future.
https://ukraineinvest.gov.ua/industries/mining
It is obvious that Ukraine will continue to strengthen its position as a European hotspot for resource extraction after the war, as it is the real, obvious reason for the invasion of Putin and his oligarchs.
Ukraine’s hydrocarbon wealth
Ukraine has perhaps the second largest natural gas deposit in Europe, some 1.2 trillion cubic metres of proven reserves and perhaps as much as 5.4 trillion cubic metres. Ukraine also has up to 37 billion tonnes of coal reserves and 148 coal mines, among the largest in the world.
Russia’s military advances into eastern and southern Ukraine since 2014 and most recently in 2022 mean that Moscow has taken control of two-thirds of the country’s maritime territory and about 80% of the oil and natural gas reserves in the Black Sea. It is estimated that there could be up to 2 trillion cubic metres of gas under the Black Sea and in Ukrainian waters. After the annexation of Crimea and before the invasion in 2022, the Ukrainian state energy company Naftogaz was preparing to explore 32 blocks. Russia apparently plans to integrate these blocks into the Russian supply chain, on which Europe is currently dependent.
Currently, Russian occupiers have access to the following mineral resources.
- 63% of Ukraine’s coal reserves
- 11% of Ukraine’s oil reserves
- 20% of Ukraine’s natural gas reserves
- 42% of Ukraine’s metal ore reserves
- 31% of Ukraine’s gold ore reserves
- 33% of Ukraine’s rare earth metal reserves
- 21% of Ukraine’s radioactive element reserves
- 21% of Ukraine’s deposits of precious stones.
Slowdown in agriculture
The war between Russia and Ukraine will have a fundamental impact on food production and exports worldwide, especially in vulnerable countries. In 2021, Ukraine supplied 12 per cent of the world’s wheat, 16 per cent of its maize and 18 per cent of its barley, and over 46 per cent of its sunflower seed and safflower oil production. The total value of exports in 2021 was USD 27 billion, of which over USD 7.6 billion went to the EU, USD 4.2 billion to China, USD 2 billion to India and USD 1.5 billion to Egypt and Turkey. Maize (USD 5.8 billion), sunflower seeds (USD 5.7 billion) and wheat (USD 5.1 billion) generated the highest revenues. The war has had an impact not only on plantings, but also on the types of crops harvested.
There are competing estimates of the extent of the war’s impact on Ukrainian production in 2022. Much will depend on how long the war lasts and which regions are affected. Some crops are likely to be more affected by the war than others. For example, about 30 % of maize production is concentrated in the Kyivska, Chernihivska, Sumska and Kharkivska regions, all of which were occupied during the war. About 30 % of wheat production is concentrated in the Donbas, Zaporizka, Khersonska and Odeska regions, all of which were affected by fighting with Russian forces in 2022. The Minister of Agriculture said that sown areas could be halved from 15 million hectares to 7 million hectares in 2021. Farmers could sow only 3.3 million hectares of maize, down from 5.4 million hectares in 2021.
Agriculture requires labour, assets and infrastructure that have been damaged by the war between Ukraine and Russia. Some reports even say that farmers are running out of fuel and have lost much of their equipment. Prices for fertilisers, many of which are bought in Russia, have also skyrocketed. The demand for food has driven up the share prices not only of producers but also of manufacturers of agricultural machinery. In addition, Russia has already begun to slow or ban exports of key inputs, including sunflower seeds. This could lead to a 40 % drop in Ukrainian oilseed production.
The Russian army also targeted and destroyed warehouses and agricultural machinery in Kiev, Chernihiv, Kherson, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhya. A prominent example is Donetsk, where Harveat, one of Ukraine’s largest agribusinesses, lost control of 98,000 hectares and now has only 22,000 hectares in Kiev. The company had planted 38,000 hectares with winter wheat and had just fertilised 40 per cent of the land, but a harvest may not be possible. Agrogeneration, another producer, reported similar problems in Kharkiv. A number of large landowners report potential losses and are also signalling resistance to Russia by providing humanitarian and food aid.
Conclusions
It is clearly in the interest of the European Union to accept Ukraine as soon as possible as a member state. Ukraine already has a highly motivated population, with women and men making innovative contributions through modern research and development.
It is also in the interest of the European Union, and in particular EU industrialised countries, to help Ukraine shake off the yoke of occupation by Putin and his oligarchs as soon as possible and avoid further casualties before Russia and for the extraction competences China will take over Ukraine and cut off Europe from reliable energy supply and natural resources the European industry needs to build a resilient Carbon free industry.
It is about time that the for-life public servants in ministries in Berlin, Paris and elsewhere to acknowledge the need to look on maps and to consult geologists and geopolitic specialists. – Is it really delusional to consider, that this war in strategy and tactics fought by the russian aggressor as a medieval war as it was for salt and water, while the western democracies fight a war in a rule based post World War II illusion ?
Does anyone want as “peace-concessions” the industrial centres in Ukraine to fall into the hands of Putin and his oligarchs to help them to rearm for the next war, like Czechoslovakia in 1938 in view of the real war in 1940?
It is also about time to have a close look on the real war goals of Hitler and his surrounding gang! When we will see the evident parallels, also in Strategy and tactics in Butcha, Irpin, in the Donbas and in Crimea, especially by the SS and Waffen SS, we will understand that the group Wagner has its name not for melomania reasons, but out of nostalgia.
It is not only the matter of helping Ukraine to win the war, the matter is to help Ukraine to win the war as long as the engineers and scientists of Ukraine are still alive to rebuild this European. TH
Sources:
- European Commission.
- SecDev, Toronto, Canada
- Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Dr Uliana Naumenko, PhD (Geology), Senior Scientist, Institute of Geological Sciences, NAS of Ukraine and Dr Svitlana Vassylenko, PhD (Geology), Senior Scientist, Institute of Geological Sciences, NAS of Ukraine.
